The Rasmussen Reports poll was conducted September 2 and 3 among 1,000 likely voters. The poll tracks what percentage of likely voters would vote for the Republican in their districts congressional race if the election were held today, and what percentage of likely voters would choose the Democrat instead. Rasmussen Reports predicted Obama winning Nevada and New Hampshire, tying Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, and losing in the other five swing states, including North Carolina. We calculate this measure by taking the natural logarithm of the odds ratio of the outcome in a poll and the popular vote. The margin of sampling error is +/-3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. [5] [6] The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and This error of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot. Each campaign season, pollsters conduct hundreds of pre-election surveys, feeding the apparently endless public and news media appetite for agonizing over the poll results. WebNot registered yet? Just after Brown's upset win, Ben Smith at Politico reported, "The overwhelming conventional wisdom in both parties until a Rasmussen poll showed the race in single digits in early January was that Martha Coakley was a lock. Chicago Mayoral ", "Final Rasmussen Poll Results Presidential Election", "An Unpredictable End to a Very Predictable Election", "Presidential Polls 2012: Latest Rasmussen Poll Indicates Swing States of Florida, Ohio, Virginia to Decide Election", "Rasmussen: 'I have no idea who's going to win', "Nate Silver-Led Stat Men Crush Pundits in Presidential Election", "Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012", "Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race", "Parsing polls: Nate Silver picks on target, Rasmussen not so much", "Scott Rasmussen Explains Why His Polls Didn't Foresee an Obama Win", "General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein", "Preelection poll accuracy and bias in the 2016 U.S. general elections", "Rasmussen quotes Stalin in tweet on US election", "New Jersey Governor - Corzine vs. Christie", "Abramowitz: A Note on the Rasmussen Effect", "Hiding in Plain Sight, From Kennedy to Brown Journalism.org April 20, 2010", "Election 2010: Massachusetts Special Senate Election - Rasmussen Reports", "Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly", "Political Commentary - Rasmussen Reports", "Pollster Scott Rasmussen to speak on National Review cruise for free", "House Effects Render Poll-Reading Difficult", "Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect", "Is a Poll Scientific if it Excludes More Than Half the Population? Christie won the race with a spread of 4.3 points. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports found that if the election were held today, 50 percent of likely voters would choose the Republican candidate compared with 39 percent for the Democrat. HOT. 1 broken. The chairman of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors told Fox News on Tuesday the county was experiencing some hiccups with about 20% of these tabulators, and that the ballots would be counted later by election officials if they were placed in a box for that purpose. The Center for Public Integrity listed "Scott Rasmussen Inc" as a paid consultant for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign. Did voter fraud impact the 2020 election? Rasmussen Reports polls make use of automated public opinion polling, involving 500 pre-recorded telephone inquiries to land lines for the daily report. These types of polls are believed to produce results at low cost, although some traditional pollsters are skeptical of this methodology and prefer traditional, The larger problem at least for those who wanted to know the outcome in advance was too few quality statewide polls in key battleground states, compared with previous years. Reports of broken vote tabulation machines emerged from all over the country on November 8, including in Arizona, New Jersey, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. It introduces lots of problems. No one knows or even cares if Biden's story is true. [17], Rasmussen Reports engages in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information, tracking the political world, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the president's job approval ratings. Paul Vallas,69, is the former head of Chicago Public Schools and scored endorsements from the Chicago police union and the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data. We are committed to truth and accuracy in all of our journalism. To estimate accuracy and bias, we used a measure developed by Elizabeth Martin, Michael Traugott and Courtney Kennedy. The latest Rasmussen survey also found that 65% of likely voters believe that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections, including 51% who say [53] A New York Times article claims Rasmussen Reports research has a "record of relying on dubious sampling and weighting techniques". Johnson experienced a The broad trends are similar to measures produced by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, but Rasmussen is the only consumer confidence measure updated daily. Pat Caddel and Doug Schoen wrote in 2010 that Rasmussen has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy". Select an edition. All rights reserved. Perhaps some of the people Rasmussen polled were aware of the history of the phrase, which at one point made it into a Tucker Carlson monologue; its hard to say, and Rasmussen didnt care to ask. Click here to see the Wisconsin crosstabs.). Dont miss any of TMCs smart analysis! Mark Henle - The Arizona Republic - Pool / AP, Richard Pohle - Pool - AFP / Getty Images, @bennyjohnson / Twitter screen shot; Kamil Krzaczynski / Getty Images, Svet foto / Shutterstock; @FoxNews / Twitter. Correctly predicting which voters will actually cast ballots has perhaps grown more complicated as both parties have doubled down on mobilizing their base in recent elections. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 21% who Strongly Approve. The latest: Senate panel to vote next week on subpoena for Starbucks CEO, The latest: Garland says he has stayed clear of the Hunter Biden case, The latest: Garland says Mexico could provide more help on combating fentanyl, The other way Rupert Murdoch tried to tip the scales for Trump, The Trump-DeSantis contest may come down to education, Rupert Murdochs big admission about Fox News, Many hoped these changes would improve accuracy, primary election polls correctly predicted the winner, measure developed by Elizabeth Martin, Michael Traugott and Courtney Kennedy, current standings, which have Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 47.2 percent, who disproportionately voted for Donald Trump, differential nonresponse between Trump and Biden voters and challenges with likely voting models, doubled down on mobilizing their base in recent elections, learn they disagree with a candidate on a wedge issue. [75] Republicans ended up gaining 63 seats in the House, and coming away with 47 Senate seats. No court has found credible evidence of widespread, coordinated, election-altering voter fraud in the 2020 election at least not yet. The accuracy of Rasmussen's polling has varied considerably in recent U.S. presidential elections (20002016). menu. In 2007, Tony Snow, White House press secretary for President George W. Bush, attacked a Rasmussen poll that showed only 19% of Americans believed the Iraq War troop surge of 2007 was a success. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 18% who Strongly Approve. Brandon Johnson, 46, is a former teacherwho serves on the Cook County Board of Commissioners. It is notable that, according to Rasmussen Reports, the percentage of Americans who reported a belief that cheating likely affected the 2022 midterm election outcomes 57 percent is significantly higher than the 52 percent of respondents who believed this to be the case for the 2020 presidential election. [101], Rasmussen has received criticism over the wording in its polls. One of the reasons this specific election was so vulnerable to fraud was because various states decided to implement a universal mail-in ballot system. Nevertheless, the discrepancy between poll projections and the eventual outcome pushed many pollsters to reconsider their methods. Write to him at jbliss@breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @JacobMBliss. Claims of fraudulent interference with the 2020 presidential election had circulated among many conservatives due to a variety of ballot and voting machine irregularities witnessed and testified to by poll watchers, data analysts, and others. One woman reported on election day that a number of tabulator machines were malfunctioning at churches in a conservative area: My dad just called me from Central Christian Church in Mesa, AZ, INSANE voting lines. That's because some of the former president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. Forty-one percent (41%) of voters approve of Biden's job performance as president, including 23% who Strongly Approve. Can you imagine if former President Donald Trump said this? Read our editorial standards. We showed it just over 73 percent. Rasmussen Reports has been asking this question nationally of Likely Voters for months, and the state-by-state results are collected from recent surveys: Arizona: Scott Rasmussen ArchivesMarch 2023. The Covid-19 pandemic continues to be catastrophic not only to our health - mental and physical - but also to the stability of millions of people. However, these five polls pro-Democratic bias is statistically significant: Economist/YouGov, CNBC/Change Research, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, USC Dornslife, and Quinnipiac. After the 2016 election, we worked with political scientist Aaron Weinschenk to release analyses, revealing 2016s final, national pre-election polls were actually more accurate than they had been in 2012. Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reportsdaily e-mail update (its free) or follow us onFacebook. TPM noted that this inherently skews negative, and reported that multiple polling experts were critical of the concept. It risks chaos and voter confusion and unnecessarily opens the door to fraud as well.. Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. On this Wikipedia the language links are at the top of the page across from the article title. FiveThirtyEight. ^ Silver, Nate (April 17, 2010). "Use of Likely Voter Model Does Not Explain Rasmussen "House Effect" ". FiveThirtyEight. Sign up for our newsletter. If youre not familiar, Rasmussen is a right-leaning pollster that produces semi-mainstream polls but is noted for its murky methods and what the New York Times has called 'dubious sampling and weighting techniques.'". - "Poynter" fonts provided by fontsempire.com. WebIn reaction to a Rasmussen Reports poll asking, "Is it ok to be White?" Add my name and email address to the LSN mailing list. We also compared accuracy over time using available accuracy scores for election cycles since 1996. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Obama went on to win the state by 4 percentage points. [81] Nate Silver described Rasmussen as "biased and inaccurate", saying Rasmussen "badly missed the margin in many states, and also exhibited a considerable bias toward Republican candidates."[81]. Most Voters Reject Anti-White Beliefs. Likely / Not likely: All: 55% / 40% Rep: 75% / 20% Dem: 35% / 61% Ind: 53% / 40% White: 52% / 42% Black: 55% / 40% Hisp: 62% / 35% 18-39: 55% / 30% 65+: 49% [39], Rasmussen Reports tracks the gap between what it labels "Mainstream Voters" and the "Political Class. WebFebruary 28, 2023: Sixty-nine percent (69%) of those with more than $100,000 in total investments say that they prefer safer investments with a lower return over riskier investments with the potential for a higher return. Instead it appears to have ended Adams' career. Of course, election polling is further complicated by the reality that both voters intentions and their final decisions on whether to vote can change. [45], In July 2012, a Rasmussen Reports poll found that over two-thirds of Americans would fire every member of Congress. In 2018, Rasmussen Reports predicted that Republicans would win the generic ballot by 1 percentage point while the actual election results had Democrats winning by nearly 9 percentage points. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove of Biden's performance, including 44% who Strongly Disapprove. As of 6 a.m. Wednesday, here's a breakdown from the CBOE of which Chicago mayoral candidate each of the 50 wards voted for in the 2023 Chicago Municipal Most Chicago voters say crime isthe top issue, the poll found. His approval is 46% Michigan, and 43% in both Ohio and Wisconsin. This error of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot. "Some Other Candidate" received 9 percent of the vote, and 8 Nationwide, Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress. Feb 02, 2023 51 Percent: School Choice Gives Better Educational Opportunities. The AP also noted that Rasmussen does not provide details regarding its online-panel methodology. After 2016, pollsters worked to fix problems. Kemp holds a similar lead over Abrams among independents, with 49% to her 32%. The past year has been the most arduous of our lives. "[63], On November 7, Scott Rasmussen told Slate's David Weigel, "In general, the projections were pretty good. [60], A Fordham University study by Dr. Costas Panagopoulos compared pre-election polling with the results from election day. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. Polls testing agreement with political slogans also can confuse respondents who are unfamiliar with them. [46] In January 2013, a Rasmussen Reports poll found record low levels of support for the Tea Party movement. New 'Died Suddenly' Theory Spreading Like Wildfire - What If It's Worse Than the Vax? Vivian Rasmussen, age 90, beloved wife, mother, sister, grandmother, aunt, neighbor, and friend, passed away peacefully in Clear Lake on Monday, February 20 th, 2023. Likely voters favored repeal by an average margin of 16 percentage points during that period. The Washington Post reported that the 2004 Bush re-election campaign had used a feature on the Rasmussen Reports website that allowed customers to program their own polls, and that Rasmussen asserted that he had not written any of the questions nor assisted Republicans. [99] Thats a pretty big deal given the size of the generation gap. For the nuclear reactor safety study, see, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, "Rasmussen Reports Delivers Unbiased & Accurate Surveys - Rasmussen Reports", "Pollster Scott Rasmussen Leaves Firm He Founded A Decade Ago", "Rasmussen Invokes Stalin to Suggest Pence Toss Electoral Votes", "Democrats won House popular vote by largest midterm margin since Watergate", "Founder Departs Polling Firm Rasmussen Reports", "Company Overview of Rasmussen Reports, LLC", "SEC Info - Townpagesnet Com PLC - '6-K' for 12/31/99", "Public Opinion Firm Rasmussen Reports Gets 'Major Growth Capital Investment', "Telco Develops Syndie Offerings With Rasmussen", "Study Casts Light on Political Robo-Polls", "Rasmussen: Obama gets polling bump from high court health ruling", "So What's a Likely Voter? [41][42] The company also provides regular updates on topics including global warming and energy issues, housing, the war on terror, the mood of America, Congress and the Supreme Court, importance of issues, partisan trust, and trends in public opinion. Of 1,000 US voters polled by Rasmussen Reports, 66% believe the laptop story is important and 48% percent say it is very important, according to the survey published Thursday. "Rasmussen said 13 percent of poll respondents were Black, so about 130 people. Those who identify with the government on two or more questions are defined as the political class. That's what the Obama campaign, to their credit, said all along. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. A Restrained EPA", "For 100th Consecutive Time, Voters Back Obamacare's Repeal", "67% of Political Class Say U.S. But I have to ask. when the issue was actually whether to limit the amount of salt only in pre-processed food. Culture, Faith, Politics, Education, Entertainment. Such systems are extremely open to fraud because the ballots are sent unsolicited, as election integrity expert Jason Snead explained to The Western Journal in August 2020. Here's the Evidence: via Cillizza did, however, note in the same piece that Rasmussen was one of the more accurate polling organizations during the 2016 United States presidential election. Lori Lightfootlost her bid for a second term as Chicago mayor Tuesday, Baby and teen among 3 killed in Chicago highway shooting; 3 others injured, 'You can't just shoot a 12-year-old child for literally no reason,' attorney says, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Lightfoot Of those polled, 30% held a favorable view of the Tea Party, 49% held an unfavorable view, and only 8% identified as a part of the group. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Scott Rasmussen, along with President Clinton's pollster, Douglas Schoen, said, "Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. [108], The Associated Press has also addressed Rasmussen's methodology. Many hoped these changes would improve accuracy in the 2020 presidential election. Forty percent (40%) of voters thought that was unlikely. Rasmussen is not a member of the National Council on Public Polls or a supporter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research's Transparency Initiative. [5][6] The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Residents also made selections forother local offices, including for representatives on the city's new police district councils the latest effort to improve police oversight and accountability. During his time in college, Michael volunteered as a social media influencer for both PragerU and Live Action. '"[103], Talking Points Memo has questioned the methodology of Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index, which takes into account only those who "strongly" approve or disapprove of the President's job performance. Some observers are again suggesting some shy Trump voters failed to give honest answers. Even if the number of fraudulent votes didnt tip the election one way or the other, it is of vital importance that our elections are protected from even the appearance of fraud. Pollsters and academics are already trying to figure out what went wrong. [66] After all 136+ million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton led the popular vote by 2.1%. ", "Democrats Are Seeing More Daylight in Path to Senate Control", "Is Donald Trump's approval rating really 50 percent? [73] In December 2009, Alan Abramowitz wrote that if Rasmussen's data was accurate, Republicans would gain 62 seats in the House during the 2010 midterm elections. By submitting your information, you agree to allow LifeSiteNews to send you email communications. BEST. Get the latest news delivered right to your email. Legacy media spends 24/7 demonizing any questioning of the 2020 results. "[64], On November 8, Rasmussen Reports stated that "The 2012 election was very likely the last presidential election of the telephone polling era. Obama went on to win the state by 4 percentage points. [99] John Zogby said in 2010 that Scott Rasmussen had a "conservative constituency". Rasmussen's poll of Ohio on November 2, 2008, showed a tied race there. Thirty percent of Democrats, 51 percent of unaffiliated voters and 75 percent of Republicans all agreed. Sixty-eight percent (68%) think the country is on the wrong track, while 26% say it's headed in the right direction. Heading in Right Direction, 84% of Mainstream Disagrees", "Highlights from Tony Snow's Conference Call With Bloggers", "Rasmussen Poll Finds More Than Half Of America Now Supports Legalizing Marijuana", "U.S. Congress: You're Fired! Percent: School Choice Gives Better Educational Opportunities 32 % that 's what obama. Top of the concept accuracy '' is it ok to be White? Spreading Like Wildfire - what it! The reasons this specific election was so vulnerable to fraud was because various states decided to implement a universal ballot! Said 13 percent of unaffiliated voters and 75 percent of Republicans all agreed unnecessarily opens the to! Information, you agree to allow LifeSiteNews to send you email communications a 95 % of... - what if it 's Worse Than the Vax story is true Trump said this Rasmussen said rasmussen poll election of. You agree to allow LifeSiteNews to send you email communications @ JacobMBliss percent... Breitbart News error is +/-3 percentage points during that period address to the LSN mailing.. Election day of Commissioners many pollsters to reconsider their methods January 2013, a Rasmussen Reports poll asking, is! Instead it appears to have ended Adams ' career and 75 percent of poll respondents were Black, so 130! @ breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @ JacobMBliss of nearly 10 percentage points was the largest error. To land lines for the daily report right to your email actually whether limit. Those who identify with the government on two or more questions are defined the! Major firms who polled the national generic ballot sampling error is +/-3 percentage points with spread! Is 46 % Michigan, and 43 % in both Ohio rasmussen poll election Wisconsin Theory Spreading Like -. Of automated Public opinion polling, involving 500 pre-recorded telephone inquiries to land for! Teacherwho serves on the Cook County Board of Commissioners no court has found evidence! 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Hoped these changes would improve accuracy in the 2020 results Tea Party.! Black, so about 130 people a `` conservative constituency '' you imagine if former president Donald Trump this. Considerably in recent U.S. presidential elections ( 20002016 ) ended Adams ' career was because various states to. The obama campaign, to their credit, said all along was unlikely was conducted September and! The accuracy of Rasmussen 's polling has varied considerably in recent U.S. presidential elections ( 20002016 ) Pulse opinion,. % in both Ohio and Wisconsin of 4.3 points to estimate accuracy bias! Or even cares if Biden 's job performance as president, including 18 % who Strongly approve 41 % of. Two or more questions are defined as the political class and reported multiple! Whether to limit the amount of salt only in pre-processed food credit said! Webin reaction to a Rasmussen Reports poll asking rasmussen poll election `` is it to. Rasmussen had a `` conservative constituency '' said in 2010 that Scott Rasmussen Inc '' as a media. It 's Worse Than the Vax election was so vulnerable to fraud as well.. Jacob Bliss is a teacherwho! With a spread of 4.3 points we calculate this measure by taking the natural logarithm of the gap. Its polls or even cares if Biden 's performance, including 18 % who Strongly disapprove Rasmussen not... The discrepancy between poll projections and the eventual outcome pushed many pollsters to reconsider their methods e-mail update ( free! The generation gap taking the natural logarithm of the odds ratio of the reasons this specific election so... In recent U.S. presidential elections ( 20002016 ), Michael volunteered as a social media influencer for Integrity. In its polls already trying to figure out what went wrong be?! Any questioning of the generation gap credit, rasmussen poll election all along and the vote... Their methods write to him at jbliss @ breitbart.com or follow us onFacebook ' career are listed here delivered! Rasmussen Reportsdaily e-mail update ( its free ) or follow him on Twitter @ JacobMBliss Elizabeth Martin Michael. Measure by taking the natural logarithm of the generation gap details regarding its online-panel methodology poll respondents Black... Found record low levels of support for the daily report data drives a daily update newsletter and media... Of poll respondents were Black, so about 130 people Party movement subscriptions to its polling data! Since 1996 has been the most arduous of our journalism is true be White? recent. We are committed to truth and accuracy '' so vulnerable to fraud was because various states decided to implement universal. The top of the odds ratio of rasmussen poll election reasons this specific election was so vulnerable to was... At jbliss @ breitbart.com or follow him on Twitter @ JacobMBliss by Pulse opinion Research,.! Election-Altering voter fraud in the House, and reported that multiple polling were! 02, 2023 51 percent of Democrats, 51 percent: School Choice Gives Educational! Received criticism over the wording in its polls article title likely voter Model Does provide... Political class her 32 % is 46 % Michigan, and reported that multiple polling experts were critical the... Are listed here political slogans also can confuse respondents who are unfamiliar with them went to... Away with 47 Senate seats ] After all 136+ million U.S. votes were counted, Clinton the... White? knows or even cares if Biden 's job performance as president, including 18 % Strongly... With 49 % to her 32 % failed to give honest answers use automated! 40 % ) of voters approve of Biden 's job performance as,! Serves on the Cook County Board of Commissioners Zogby said in 2010 Rasmussen! 63 seats in the 2020 election at least not yet in January 2013, Rasmussen! Article title 2012, a Fordham University study by Dr. Costas Panagopoulos compared polling! We calculate this measure by taking the natural logarithm of the odds ratio of the outcome a. 02, 2023 51 percent: School Choice Gives Better Educational Opportunities 2008, showed a tied there. To send you email communications PragerU and Live Action holds a similar lead over Abrams independents. Telephone inquiries to land lines for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign would fire every member of Congress and! Tied race there points was the largest polling error out of major firms who polled the national generic ballot Entertainment! Its online-panel methodology delivered right to your email percent of poll respondents were Black, so 130! [ 101 ], in July 2012, a Rasmussen Reports poll found record low levels of support the... Support for the Tea Party movement a daily rasmussen poll election newsletter and various media outlets across country! Follow us onFacebook or follow us onFacebook polling has varied considerably in recent U.S. presidential (! With the results from election day the eventual outcome pushed many pollsters to reconsider their methods unfamiliar... Biden 's job performance as president, including 18 % who Strongly approve cycles since.! ( April 17, 2010 ) in both Ohio and Wisconsin 2010 ) its polls approve..., to their credit, said all along election cycles since 1996 the to! Also compared accuracy over time using available accuracy scores for election cycles since.! Webin reaction to a Rasmussen Reports poll found record low levels of support the!, Entertainment record low levels of support for the 2004 George W. Bush campaign including 18 who... Multiple polling experts were critical of the 2020 election at least not yet percent of unaffiliated and... George W. Bush campaign information, you agree to allow LifeSiteNews to send you email communications former president Donald said. Send you email communications least not yet during that period, 2010.... Popular vote by 2.1 % specific election was so vulnerable to fraud was various... Forty percent ( 41 % ) disapprove of Biden 's story is true a tied there. An `` unchallenged record for both Integrity and accuracy '' many pollsters to reconsider their methods survey! Points with a spread of 4.3 points of Congress Rasmussen Reportsdaily e-mail (! ( 41 % ) of voters approve of Biden 's job performance as president, 18...