Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. [62], Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely using a potentially staged appeal of mobilized soldiers seeking to join Wagner PMC in hopes of improving Wagner PMCs reputation and appeal to potential recruits. After their initial invasion last year failed to take Kyiv, Russian forces pulled back, mining roads and fields. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. [53]This arrest demonstrates Russian authorities willingness and ability to target Russian citizens abroad in Russia-friendly countries for acts of protest committed previously within Russia. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. And that is what Russia did in 2014 to sort of take Crimea. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Slate is published by The Slate Group, a Graham Holdings Company. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Pretty outdated. The vice president last week, in her visit to Poland, in her public statement, she was asked about this. Want to write for Task & Purpose? The way the Russians have advanced, which is that they have stuck to main roads so that they can move quickly, not risk of getting bogged down in mud. In 2018, about 400 Wagner Group mercenaries went up against some of our best troops - Delta Force, Green Berets, Marines - in eastern Syria. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. So what - and I'm going to ask you to explain, you know, what that means, but when you look at what's happening in Ukraine right now, tell me what you see. most of it. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. Thomas Bullock, an open source analyst from Janes, the defense intelligence firm, said Russian forces have made tactical errors that the Ukrainians have been able to capitalize on. If Step 2 hit a big obstacle, the by-the-book soldiers moved on to Step 3 anyway. The Russian military is about twenty years behind, compared to Western powers. In everything that they do. He was American. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. During the Cold War, the Warsaw Pact disposed of more than twice as many divisions and three times as many tanks as NATO did. It's certainly horrifying. [6]ISW has assessed that Russian invocations of nuclear threats and nuclear doctrine are part of an information operation meant to discourage Ukraine and the West but do not represent any material Russian intent to employ nuclear weapons. Get the latest in military news, entertainment and gear in your inbox daily. [61], Russian authorities are increasing recruiting efforts targeting foreigners. [47]Ukraines Southern Operational Command reported that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance occasionally try to move between islands in the Dnipro River in converted civilian vessels and that Ukrainian forces destroyed two of these watercraft on February 28. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s Meanwhile, in wars in Syria and Ukraine, the Russian military has preferred to "outsource" to local auxiliaries, mercenaries, and proxies the manning of defensive positions and more casualty-intensive close-quarters combat missions. Sean McFate, welcome. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. All rights reserved. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. Stay up to date with what you want to know. Nor have the Russians established air superiority, even though their air force far outnumbers Ukraines. [67]Meduzareported on February 27 that Russian authorities are prosecuting a single father in Efremov, Tula Oblast after his daughter drew an anti-war graphic in an art class. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. They created this fog of war and used it all these sneaky ways. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. [20]Ukrainian intelligence officials stated that Belarus supplied Russia with artillery ammunition from Belarusian warehouses to support operations in Ukraine. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. Russia will commit hara-kiri if it sends its tanks fitted with 1PN96MT-02 optical sights in the Ukraine War. The T-62 is a vintage tank fielded by the Russian Army since the initial months of the ongoing conflict. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. It isnt a good army executing outdated or out-of-context tactics. Pretty outdated. The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. Putin seems to be following a manual out of the last century, not this one. Lukashenko stated during his official trip to China that Russia is ready to take steps towards a peaceful settlement and that there is a unique opportunity to end the war in Ukraine before Russia puts its economy on a stronger war footing. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. Putin's admission is a remarkable reversal from his comments in August, when he bragged to foreign allies at a military forum that Russia's weapons are "cutting edge" and "decades ahead" of their foreign counterparts. None of this should be overstated. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. Regarding claims Russia lacks manpower due to a shrinking population, in fact only 5% of each yearly male cohort is conscripted, and the pool of available manpower is expected to increase for at least a decade. In response, nearly one million military-aged Russian men fled the country. [28], Ukrainian forces continue to target Russian concentration areas in the rear of Luhansk Oblast. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. [31]Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that the situation in Bakhmut is becoming increasingly complicated, and Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky remarked that Wagner is increasingly committing its most prepared assault units to offensives in the area. It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. I'm not talking to anybody on the streets. MCFATE: Well, I've had a couple of conversations - well, more than a few with Wagner Group mercenaries. Having the Ukrainians just wreck your airborne units, elite Russian units, has to be devastating for Russian morale, said Frederick W. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute. [40]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [41]https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. What are you thinking of? Its troops could plunder the places they conquer for fuel, food, and other supplies. Vladimir Putin dismissed the weapon as old and said Russias missile systems would be able to shoot it down. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. Written By. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. Similarly, tanks arent supposed to roll through hostile territory all alone. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. Adaily email update of the stories you need to read right now. [1]https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// [2]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://t.me/mod_russia/24273, [3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022323; https://isw.pub/UkrWar02242023. Wagner Group-affiliated media outlet, posted footage on February 27 and 28 showing Wagner fighters walking around northern Bakhmut near the Stupky railway station and Sady Bakhmuta garden store, indicating that Wagner has advanced in northern Bakhmut. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. Of course, it is hard to have 100% of recent equipment and machinery when you have a sizeable army. Get the latest military news, entertainment, and gear in your inbox daily. So I think we - you know, and the laws of war will once again prove rather feckless in changing his decision to do that. [35]Footage taken by a Ukrainian soldier in Chasiv Yar shows heavy incoming fire directed at the settlement, suggesting that Russian forces are continuing to strike areas along the T0504 Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar-Bakhmut highway. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. according to the Kremlin's official site. [70]The decision imposes sanctions on 109 Russian citizens involved in the deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children, including many regional representatives of the Russian Childrens Rights Commission and Human Rights Commission. Unspecified Belarusian airborne elementslikely of the Belarusian 38th Airborne Brigade conducted airborne parachute exercises from Il-76 aircraft at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus, on February 28.[81]. That information campaign centering on Russias openness to negotiations aimed to prompt Western officials to offer preemptive concessions and coerce Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms and likely contributed to the delay in the provision of Western tanks and other equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives. Russian Forces Deploying Outdated Military Equipment In Ukraine To 'replace Losses': ISW The ISW in its latest report claimed that Russian officials have been taking over the governmental positions in the captured parts of Ukraine. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. Relative to GDP, Russia outranks even the United States, with 4.3 percent of its economic output going to the military, versus 3.7 percent. Claim: According to a February 2023 video message, U.S. President Joe Biden had invoked the Selective Service Act, which will draft 20-year-olds through lottery to the military as a result of a The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. Yes, in 1996 Chechnyan separatists managed to compel Russian troops to withdraw in the First Chechen War but were then brutally crushed four years later. Russian opposition sourceMeduzareported on February 27 that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing foreigners to sign one-year military contracts as privates and sergeants, as opposed to the traditional five-year contracts. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Sbastien Roblin writes on the technical, historical, and political aspects of international security and conflict for publications including 19FortyFive, The National Interest, NBC News, Forbes.com and War is Boring. Hence the stories of captured Russian troops who had no idea why they were in Ukraine. [46], Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in reconnaissance activity and skirmishes in the Dnipro River delta. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an arson attack on a military commissariat and sentenced a Volgograd resident to four years in prison for setting fire to the back room of a military registration and enlistment office on Registration on or use of this site constitutes acceptance of our Terms of Service. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. $25 a month), and serve only for one year, half of which is spent simply learning the necessary skills and undergoing particularly brutal hazing. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. Got an acquitance whos already been serving for like 12 years and holds a senior NCO rank. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military, said Andrei V. Kozyrev, the foreign minister for Russia under Boris Yeltsin, in a post on Twitter. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. [63]Video footage posted to social media on February 27 shows a group of mobilized Russian soldiers from the dissolved 352nd Motorized Rifle Regiment requesting that Prigozhin help them serve in the Wagner Group rather than in traditional mobilized units. "For example, for every item of gear or equipment, we must listen to those who use them and understand how these items perform and whether they are fit for their intended purpose," Putin told his coordination council, according to the Kremlin's official site. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused the US and its accomplices on February 28 of planning to carry out a provocation in Ukraine using toxic chemicals. NATO? Furthermore, declines in the ruble-to-dollar exchange rates don't as directly affect the price of military hardware Russia buys from Russian firms, ie. [5]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [6]https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. Do the sources know the information? A top US defense official supported ISWs continued assessment that Russia is extraordinarily unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. And the battle last - was in a stalemate for two hours between our best and these mercenaries until we called in our air support - you know, B-52s - well, not - like, AC-130 gunships, Apache helicopters, Predators. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. Absolutely hilarious to watch. It's not that there is never continuity or that all problems get corrected, but militaries really do change for better and worse in response to historical experience and shifting material circumstances. The Way Ahead: Three Defining Elements for Russia Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. But I wonder if you feel that this is a relevant concept here in this - in modern warfare. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. That Russia 's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware equipment! 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